In a move that has sent shockwaves through the global solar industry, the U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced its final anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) rates on crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells, whether assembled into modules or not, imported from four Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The rates, which are alarmingly high, have surged even further compared to the preliminary duty results released in late 2024.
According to multiple media reports, the AD duties on solar products from these four Southeast Asian nations have soared to a maximum of 271.28%. The CVD rates range from 14.64% to a staggering 3403.96%. When combined, some Cambodian solar companies are facing combined AD and CVD rates as high as 3521.14%.
A seasoned solar market expert, when interviewed by reporters, commented that the current duty rates are generally in the range of 100% to 200%, with some exceeding an absurd 3000%, similar to the retaliatory tariff rates seen recently. “Once the duty rates reach a certain level, they become more of a ‘numbers game’,” the expert said. Such tariffs often serve as political statements or a means for some countries to show allegiance to the U.S. government, rather than having substantial real-world implications.
Based on the timeline outlined in the U.S. Department of Commerce’s announcement, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is required to make its final determination by June 2, 2025. If the USITC issues an affirmative ruling, the AD and CVD rates will officially come into effect on June 9, 2025.
Currently, a critical issue plaguing the U.S. solar market is the insufficient battery cell production capacity. In the first quarter of 2025, while the U.S. module production capacity reached 50.5 GW, the domestic battery cell production capacity stood at a mere 2.3 GW. Excluding thin-film module production capacity, there is still a significant shortfall of approximately 37 GW in battery cell production capacity in the United States. The industry anticipates that the U.S. will still need to import products from Indonesia and Laos. However, if Indonesia and Laos are unable to fully meet the order demand, it is speculated that a portion of the volume may have to be sourced from India or Malaysia, which is already subject to AD and CVD duties.
Overall, the increase in duty rates is expected to drive up the costs of solar projects in the United States. To cope with the tariff pressure, supply chain prices may also need to be adjusted upwards.
