Polysilicon prices have hit new lows this week, according to the latest data from China’s silicon Industry Branch, released on June 26.
| Material | Average Price (CNY/kg) | Average Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-type polysilicon | 40.0 | 5.54 | -0.25 |
| N-type granular silicon | 36.5 | 5.05 | 0.00 |
| Mono recharge | 36.5 | 5.05 | -4.45 |
| Mono dense | 34.6 | 4.79 | -6.23 |
| Mono popcorn | 32.1 | 4.44 | -3.89 |
The consistent decline in polysilicon prices continues, with n-type materials showing relative stability but a reduction in high-price transactions.
P-type materials saw a significant drop, with the average transaction price for p-type dense materials falling to ¥36.5/kg, equaling the price of n-type granular silicon, accumulating a 6.23% decrease over two weeks.
Market Activity:
This week, the polysilicon market saw subdued transaction activity, mainly driven by the fulfillment of previous orders.
Feedback from industry players indicates that 15 companies are still undergoing maintenance shutdowns, leading to a reduction in supply for June.
However, low downstream operational rates have resulted in less-than-expected inventory reductions.
According to production schedules, some capacity is expected to resume in July, and the release of new capacity by two leading companies will add to inventory pressure, maintaining low prices.
During the 2024 SNEC PV Power Expo, several companies shared during interviews with Solarbe that market prices have bottomed out in the first half of the year, putting the industry in a challenging state. They emphasized that innovation is crucial for overcoming this period.
Industry Insights:
On June 20, Li Chuangjun, Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration (NEA), announced measures to guide the healthy development of the PV industry.
These efforts aim to rationally guide the construction and release of upstream PV production capacity, avoiding repetitive low-end capacity construction.
As outdated capacity is phased out, the profitability of the industry chain is expected to recover, stimulating market vitality.
Wafer and Module Market:
- Wafer Prices: This week, wafer prices remained stable. According to Solarbe Consulting data, the expected production for June was adjusted to 53 GW, with specialized companies nearing full capacity. The initial inventory reduction of wafers has been effective, with prices bottoming out. Some manufacturers may attempt to raise prices in July, potentially leading to a price rebound.
- Cell Prices: Prices continued to decline this week. A drop in module demand has led to an inventory buildup, intensifying competition among companies. In the short term, cell prices face downward pressure.
- Module Prices: There was a slight decrease in module prices this week. Top-tier manufacturers maintained TOPCon module prices above ¥0.8/W, while some second and third-tier companies adopted low-price strategies to expedite shipments, with some deals as low as ¥0.74-0.76/W. With the summer vacation season approaching in key overseas markets, demand is weakening. Reforms in electricity pricing policies in some regions in China are impacting distributed demand. Overall, as module inventories increase, prices are expected to continue their downward trend.
As the solar PV industry navigates these challenging times, market participants remain cautiously optimistic, hoping that strategic innovations and policy guidance will pave the way for recovery and growth.
