Domestic silicon market remained active this week. The news that polysilicon futures are about to be listed has enhanced traders’ demand for delivery stocks, increased market liquidity, accelerated inventory removal, and eased the financial pressure on silicon companies, according to Solarbe.
| Material | Average Price (CNY/kg) | Average Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-type polysilicon | 40.4 | 5.63 | 1.00 |
| N-type granular silicon | 36.7 | 5.11 | 0.55 |
| Mono recharge | 36.1 | 5.03 | 0.00 |
| Mono dense | 34.3 | 4.78 | 0.00 |
| Mono popcorn | 31.2 | 4.35 | 0.00 |
According to insiders, a new head enterprise cut production in August, while another one plans to increase, and some second and third-line manufacturers continue to cut down, which bring down the overall production. Notably, though downstream demand seems recovering, the purchase of silicon is not expected to increase significantly in short term, since they still have inventory that could maintain at least one-month of normal production.
At present, reducing load to ensure cash flow is the only choice left for polysilicon manufacturers, and it’s costly and unsustainable trying to squeeze out the competitors by continuously cutting price, let alone achieve real capacity clearance. It is expected that in the second half of the year, enterprises will simultaneously reduce load to clear inventory, and the overall load will be reduced to 60% in 2025.
Solar wafer
Prices were stable this week. According to data from Solarbe Consulting, domestic silicon wafer production was about 50GW in July, down 1.8% from the previous month. At least four companies have begun to increase production, and wafer prices may rise slightly as silicon prices recover and downstream demand improves.
Solar cell
In July, the output of cells was about 49GW. Capacity and production have rebounded in August, and the capacity is expected to be 53-55GW, which also creates a certain gap between supply and demand between modules. At present, cell inventories are enough, and prices are at risk of further decline.
Solar module
Module prices continued to fall this week. Although some manufacturers have tried to increase the offer, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the actual transaction price still shows a downward trend. In this context, the TOP 10 module suppliers, with their brand advantages, scale effects and execution, have shown more obvious advantages in order acquisition.
As upstream prices stabilize, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain is gradually easing. However, the module market remains cautious in its expectations, and most believe that a substantial rebound in module prices is likely to take at least another six months to a year.
