The lowest transaction prices of polysilicon have been reduced to below RMB 150 /kg, down by over 50% from peak to trough, according to the latest data released by the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.
The price for prime for mono, the highest grade polysilicon, falls between RMB 150 to RMB 182 per kilogram, with the average price reaching RMB 178.2/kg.
Sources from some wafer manufacturers told Solarbe that they had received quotations of RMB 140/kg.
According to Solarbe Consulting, polysilicon prices have been climbing from January to November 2022. Polysilicon prime for mono, for example, rose from RMB 229.1/ton (~USD 32.97) and reached a peak price of RMB 308.8/ton (~USD 44.44) in September. In December, the price started dropping dramatically to RMB 209.8/ton (~USD 30.19).
Due to the sharp drop in polysilicon prices, wafer manufacturers have maintained high inventory levels for over a week, said the Silicon Branch. The actual and future demand for polysilicon has been dramatically reduced, while the production capacity of polysilicon has been expanding.
The excess supply has forced manufacturers with high inventory pressure to sell their polysilicon at a discount, resulting in the slump in polysilicon prices.
The Silicon Branch said that about 811,000 tons of polysilicon have been produced in 2022, up by 65.5%. The output in December reached approximately 96,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.4%.
It is projected that polysilicon output will rise to 100,000 tons in January 2023.
Solarbe predicts lower demand in January due to the Spring Festival holiday at the end of the month. As a low season for the solar industry, January is likely to see a further decline in supply chain prices.
Module prices of first-tier brands are expected to fall below RMB 1.75/W, while those of second and third-tier enterprises will likely drop to less than RMB 1.65/W.
