According to data released by China’s Silicon Industry Branch on Wednesday, the prices of polysilicon have fallen by up to 5.74% over the past two weeks. The price difference between the highest and lowest prices has also expanded.
The price of polysilicon recharging is currently between CNY 185-212/kg, with an average transaction price of CNY 197.8/kg, which is down by 5.72%.
Polysilicon prime for mono costs CNY 183-210/kg and has an average price of CNY 195.3/kg, representing a decrease of 5.52%.
Polysilicon prime for multi costs between CNY 180-208/kg and has an average price of CNY 192.3/kg, which is down by 5.74%.
Compared to the quotations released two weeks ago, the highest transaction prices for all types of polysilicon have seen a slight increase of CNY 2/kg, while the lowest transaction prices have dropped by more than CNY 19/kg. Consequently, the average transaction prices have decreased by over CNY 11/kg.
The Silicon Industry Branch attributes the widening price gap to the rising demand for n-type polysilicon and the increased supply of relatively low-quality polysilicon in the market.
The higher demand for n-type polysilicon has pushed up the prices of the product, resulting in a larger price difference between n-type and p-type polysilicon.
The quality of polysilicon at some newly established facilities is still relatively unstable, resulting in a higher supply of lower quality products in the market. The transaction prices for such products are lower than mainstream prices.
Yin Yeze, Deputy Chief Editor at Solarbe, predicts that there is still room for polysilicon prices to decline further. The prices are expected to maintain a mild downward trend in the second quarter. However, wafer prices are unlikely to follow suit due to the shortage of quartz sand and crucibles, which remains a bottleneck.
Although the proportion of crucibles in the cost of wafers is not high, experts point out that the crucible material has a significant impact on its lifespan. If the lifespan of the crucible is shortened, the energy cost, labor, and management cost in the crystal pulling process will increase significantly.
As a result, the product quality, especially the yield of wafers, will decline significantly, leading to an increase in non-silicon costs, a decrease in actual supply, and ultimately affecting the price of silicon wafers.
According to Yin, the decline in module prices depends more on wafer supply than polysilicon.
Reports suggest that the demand for externally procuring silicon wafers and cells has increased due to insufficient supply of quartz sand at some vertically-integrated manufacturers. This could lead to fluctuations in wafer prices in the near future.
Although the 210mm large-size wafers and cells have a slight cost advantage with the adjustment of TCL Zhonghuan’s wafer quotation, the current supply is still tight, and profits are mainly preserved in the cell link. Therefore, the reduction in module prices may be less than expected.
