According to the “Africa PV Market Outlook 2025-2028” report published by the Global Solar Council (GSC) in collaboration with the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and supported by GET.Invest, the annual new installed solar capacity in Africa was 2.403 GW in 2024, a decrease of nearly 22% compared to 3.076 GW in 2023.
Decline in South African Market Share, Rapid Growth in Egypt
South Africa remains the largest solar installed market in Africa, accounting for 46% of new installations in Africa in 2024, but its share has significantly declined from 79% in 2023. In contrast, Egypt experienced substantial growth in 2024, with its market share increasing from 5% in 2023 to 29%.
Market to Rebound Sharply in 2025, Maintaining a 30% CAGR Over the Next Four Years
The GSC points out that delays in PV project development in North Africa were the main reason for the decline in solar installations in Africa in 2024. However, the expected new installed capacity in 2025 is expected to rebound with a year-on-year increase of 42%, as projects postponed in 2024 will be connected to the grid in 2025, particularly tender projects in Algeria. In addition, Mozambique, Ghana, and Morocco will also be important drivers of installed capacity growth in 2025. In 2025, 18 African countries are expected to add more than 100 MW of solar capacity, compared to only 2 countries meeting this standard in 2024.
The GSC has conducted scenario predictions for market trends from 2025 to 2028. In the neutral scenario, solar installations in Africa are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2025 to 2028, with a total of 23 GW added over the four years. The new installed capacity predictions for the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios are 9.2 GW and 47 GW, respectively.
High Capital Costs Pose a Major Obstacle to Solar Development
Despite the huge market potential, the GSC believes that African countries still need to overcome some key challenges to narrow the gap between power supply and demand. These challenges are mainly related to inadequate grid infrastructure, lack of scalability, power outages, currency risks, and weak purchasing power for small-scale solutions. The GSC specifically mentions that financing difficulties are also one of the important issues that need to be addressed in the African market. Currently, private sector investor participation is limited, and there is a lack of large-scale low-cost financing and new financing instruments. The report points out that solar capital costs in Africa are 3 to 7 times higher than in developed countries, yet the region only receives 3% of global energy investment. To achieve energy access and climate goals, Africa needs investments of 200 billion annually, but only 40 million was achieved in 2024.
“High capital costs remain a major obstacle to solar expansion in Africa,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of GSC. “To attract domestic and foreign investment, it is necessary to derisk, mobilize concessional financing, and deploy innovative financing models. With the support of the right policies and financial mechanisms, Africa has the potential to become the most competitive solar economy globally.” The report also emphasizes that Africa should develop local solar manufacturing to ensure that PV technology becomes a powerful driver of the region’s energy transition.
