According to a recent report by DNV Consulting, the continuous decline in solar and battery costs is expected to drive a reduction in coal-fired power generation and oil use globally, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector potentially peaking this year.
Experts and climate scientists previously noted that global CO2 emissions reached a record high last year, making it increasingly challenging to limit temperature increases to within 1.5 degrees Celsius. While DNV predicts that emissions will peak this year, the decline thereafter is expected to be gradual, with temperatures likely rising to 2.2 degrees Celsius this century.
Currently, solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery installations are rapidly expanding. In 2023, global solar capacity increased by 80%, reaching 400 GW, with solar costs falling below those of coal in many regions. As battery prices continue to decline, the adoption of solar and storage power is expected to rise significantly.
Last year, battery prices fell by 14% and are expected to continue decreasing, making electric vehicles more affordable. China, the world’s largest coal consumer and CO2 emitter, accounts for 58% of global solar capacity and 63% of electric vehicle sales. With China accelerating solar and wind installations, its reliance on fossil fuels is projected to decrease rapidly.
Remi Eriksen, DNV Group President and CEO, stated, “Solar PV and batteries are accelerating the energy transition, with growth surpassing our previous expectations.” He added, “Reaching peak emissions is a significant milestone for humanity, but our focus now should be on how to accelerate the reduction of emissions and leverage existing tools to expedite the energy transition.”
Meanwhile, BP’s latest energy outlook predicts that global CO2 emissions from the energy sector will peak in the mid-century based on current trends. Shell estimates that CO2 emissions from energy use, industrial processes, and land use will peak by 2030, exceeding 2010 levels by 10%.
