The latest report by BloombergNEF (BNEF) predicts that the low prices of solar modules may continue to boost global solar PV installation. And in 2024, the global capacity installation will reach 592 GW, an increase of 33% from last year. The module prices have dropped to a historical low at $0.096/W.
Meanwhile, BNEF has also lowered its estimated on polysilicon production in 2024 to 1.96 million metric tons. Jenny Chase, lead analyst for solar, stated that it’s mainly due to low prices and oversupply, and manufacturers are arranging maintenance or using other methods to temporarily reduce production. The current price of polycrystalline silicon is $4.9/KG, which is lower than the production cost of almost all manufacturers.
BNEF predicts that by the end of this year, the module prices of TOPCon products in the free market will be under $0.10/W.
BNEF report states that in a fiercely competitive environment, solar PV manufacturers are striving to maintain market share, and low module prices will have a negative impact on most manufacturers. It warns that most solar manufacturers are expected to incur losses this year, and some may not be able to survive this cycle.
The overcapacity in the solar energy supply chain has led to sustained price declines. Manufacturers are facing losses at all stages of the supply chain, from polysilicon to modules. They have taken measures such as wage cuts, cost reductions, layoffs, and even delayed payments to suppliers in an attempt to maintain production.
