On February 27th, the “Seminar on Review of Photovoltaic Industry Development in 2024 and Outlook for 2025” organized by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Beijing. During the event, analyst Youru Tan from BloombergNEF provided insights and a review of the global PV industry’s development.
Tan introduced that global PV installations are expected to reach 698GW by 2025, with an optimistic forecast of 730GW of new installations this year, representing a growth rate close to 20%. Besides the stable growth of the Chinese PV market, substantial growth is anticipated in the PV sectors of the United States, India, Southeast Asia, and Europe.
Regarding the Chinese market, PV installations are projected to reach 302GW this year. We are optimistic about China’s PV installations in 2025, as many large-scale ground-mounted power station projects will be connected to the grid this year. Moreover, 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and with the advancement of various provincial targets, significant growth in the construction of large-scale ground-mounted power stations is expected, with an anticipated 177GW of centralized PV installations. In terms of industrial and commercial PV, we observe some differences between new and existing markets, with installations expected to grow by 7% this year. For residential PV, affected by grid connection, consumption, and electricity prices, installations are projected to be around 30GW this year, remaining stable compared to last year.
In the US market, new PV installations will reach a new high of 55GW this year. This growth is attributed to the good economics of PV power generation and the increasing demand for green electricity procurement from technology companies, driving the advancement of large-scale ground-mounted power station projects in the US.
With the rapid decline in module prices, an increasing number of cost-effective PV modules have played a significant role in promoting the development of emerging markets. Tan expressed his delight in expecting the number of markets with GW-scale installations to rise to 40 this year. In terms of PV growth patterns, besides China, India’s PV installations are expected to reach 39GW, with large-scale ground-mounted power stations and residential PV markets flourishing comprehensively. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, and even North Africa also have great potential for PV development.
From the perspective of supply and prices, despite the continuous increase in PV installations, the PV supply chain has faced difficult challenges. Specifically, as output and production capacity scale up, the actual profits of enterprises have declined, leading to a downward trend in the output value of the entire PV manufacturing industry.
