On March 12th, the latest industry research report released by Fraunhofer ISE (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems) in Germany attracted global attention in the photovoltaic (PV) industry. The data revealed that the average actual power output of monocrystalline silicon PV modules in 2024 was 1.2% lower than their nominal capacity. Although this represented a slight improvement compared to the 1.3% gap in 2023, it marked the eighth consecutive year that actual power generation fell below rated values.
Since 2012, the institute has conducted laboratory tests on 70,000 modules produced by 15 leading global companies. Notably, the research team excluded samples where laboratory data perfectly matched nominal values, revealing an industry hidden rule—some companies may overstate nominal power by optimizing test conditions. The data showed that actual module power fluctuated within ±1% of the nominal value, with the 1.3% negative deviation in 2023 hitting a record low, while the slight improvement in 2024 was seen as a sign of industry awakening.
Based on Germany’s PV installation market, a 1.2% power decline implies that out of the 16.2GW of new installations in 2024, about 195MW of generating capacity was lost. This figure is equivalent to the total installed capacity of Nord Solar Park in Brandenburg, Germany’s third-largest solar power station. Industry analysts pointed out that, based on the current subsidy standard of 0.03 euros per kWh, the annual loss of generating revenue in the German market alone due to this issue exceeded 5 million euros.
Moreover, the report highlighted two core issues:
Technically, the tunneling oxide layer defect issue found in TOPCon batteries last year remains unresolved, and this technology route exhibited higher decay rates than traditional PERC batteries in laboratory tests.
Supply chain risks: Reports from Kiwa PI Berlin, a third-party testing agency, showed significantly higher failure rates for modules produced in the United States, India, and Laos. In particular, efficiency decline due to electrolyte contamination in Southeast Asia was prominent.
In response to the ongoing performance crisis, the global PV industry is taking measures. For example, in China, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has initiated a “Zero-Decay Module” certification system, requiring module power decay not to exceed 5% over a 25-year operating period. The European Union is also revising its PV Module Energy Efficiency Labeling Regulation, planning to implement stricter power testing standards in 2025.
Despite current module prices being at historic lows, performance reliability is becoming a new focus for investors. The latest report by BloombergNEF (BNEF) indicated that the financing cost for PV projects with performance guarantee clauses was 15-20 basis points higher than that of ordinary projects. Analysts believed that this “real power war” could reshape the industry landscape, with companies possessing technological advantages and complete quality traceability systems likely to gain larger market shares.
At the 40th Photovoltaic Symposium held in Staffenstein, Bavaria, Germany, Daniel Phillip, the director of Fraunhofer ISE, admitted, “When PV power generation accounts for more than 20% of total power generation, every 0.5% of power error will amplify into billions of euros in asset impairment.”
