According to the “2024 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report” jointly published by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, the U.S. installed a record 50 GW of solar capacity in 2024, bringing the cumulative installed capacity to 235.7 GW. Overall, solar accounted for 66% of the nation’s new electricity generating capacity additions, and when including energy storage systems, this share rose to 84%.
Utility-scale solar projects drove growth, with 41.4 GW added during the year. The commercial solar segment saw an increase of 2.12 GW, up 8% year-on-year, mainly from California, Illinois, New York, and Maine. Community solar achieved a record-high annual growth rate of 35%, with 1.74 GW added. Residential solar was the only market to decline year-on-year, mainly due to shrinking demand in California and high interest rates, with only 4.7 GW added, a decrease of 31% and the lowest level since 2021.
The report predicts that the annual average new installed capacity in the next decade is expected to reach 45 GW. However, different policy and economic scenarios will affect the industry’s development trajectory. The report also presents optimistic and pessimistic scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario: If the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remain unchanged, future guidance policies are favorable to developers, and the Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts (to 2.75%-3.00% by 2027), cumulative new installations by 2034 will increase by 24% (about 118 GW) compared to the baseline expectation.
Pessimistic Scenario: If the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) phases out early and domestic manufacturing capacity growth is limited, new solar installations by 2035 will decrease by 127 GW (a 25% drop) compared to the baseline expectation.
“Last year’s record installations benefited from multiple solar policies and credit support in the IRA, boosting interest in the solar market,” said Sylvia Levy a Martínez, lead analyst for North American utility solar at Wood Mackenzie. “We still face many challenges, including unprecedented load growth on the grid. If these favorable policies are repealed or substantially modified, it will greatly harm the industry’s sustained growth.”
In 2024, U.S. solar module manufacturing capacity increased by 190% year-on-year, from 14.5 GW at the end of 2023 to 42.1 GW, and surpassed 50 GW by early 2025, nearly meeting domestic market demand. Although some companies postponed or canceled battery manufacturing projects planned for 2024, recent acceleration in photovoltaic cell manufacturing has been observed, with Suniva (1 GW) and ES Foundry (2 GW) starting production. Silicon wafer manufacturing remains a shortcoming, with no new projects coming online in 2024 and several manufacturers reducing or canceling original plans. Previously, the Biden administration included silicon wafers for photovoltaics in the 48D CHIPS Act, which is expected to promote development in this field.
