Since 2016, China has emerged as the world’s leading polysilicon producer, accounting for 50% of global output and achieving an absolute dominant position in 2023. By the end of 2023, global effective polysilicon capacity reached 2.256 million tonnes, up 71.6% year-on-year. China’s polysilicon capacity increased from 1.163 million tonnes at the end of 2022 to 2.1 million tonnes, accounting for 93% of global total capacity. Looking ahead to 2025, with the release of overseas downstream capacity and China’s cost-effectiveness advantage in polysilicon, China’s polysilicon exports are expected to maintain growth, potentially becoming a new demand growth point for polysilicon.
Overseas polysilicon production is concentrated in Germany, the United States, and Malaysia. In 2023, the United States and Germany maintained capacities of 34,000 tonnes and 65,000 tonnes respectively, while Malaysia’s Tokuyama project increased capacity by 4,000 tonnes to 34,000 tonnes compared to 2022.
Over the past decade, global polysilicon production has shown a trend of stable growth, with China accounting for most of the capacity increase. The rapid rise of China’s polysilicon industry globally is attributed to the surge in PV installation demand and the acquisition of advanced granular silicon technology by GCL. Overseas, polysilicon capacity expansion has been slower due to production cost constraints.
In terms of demand, global PV installations are expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Various institutions predict different growth rates, but most agree that demand will continue to rise. Looking ahead to 2025, global PV installation growth is expected to range from 5% to 15%, with China’s growth remaining flat or fluctuating slightly while overseas growth is expected to be 10% to 30%.
Looking ahead to 2025, despite a significant amount of new polysilicon capacity awaiting commissioning, current capacity already exceeds downstream demand. The polysilicon industry has reached a self-regulatory agreement on production cuts, and the commissioning progress of these projects is expected to slow down. In December 2024, multiple PV industry chain companies in China formally signed a self-regulatory agreement under the organization of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. From 2025 onwards, signatory companies will control capacity or output according to the signed data, and PV industry chain prices are expected to stabilize.
In 2024, China’s polysilicon international trade pattern shifted from a net importer to a net exporter. In July 2024, China’s polysilicon imports were 2,921 tonnes, and exports were 57.93 million tonnes, resulting in a net export of 2,872 tonnes. However, on a yearly basis, even with larger exports after July, the first half of the year was a net importer, making the overall annual cumulative still a net importer.
