Data from the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) has revealed that South Africa added 961MW of new photovoltaic (PV) installations in the first ten months of this year. By comparison, the new installed capacity for the same period in 2023 was 2430MW.
SAPVIA stated that the new solar energy capacity added this year entirely consists of privately funded projects, noting that no publicly procured solar power plants have been commissioned since 2019. However, a 495MW utility-scale state-owned solar power plant is under full construction, with 375MW expected to be grid-connected in 2024 and an additional 120MW by early 2026. Another 880MW project is in the late stages of development, planned for completion in 2025.
Based on registration trends in the private sector, SAPVIA predicts an 8% to 15% quarterly growth rate in the South African small commercial and industrial (C&I) solar market (with installed capacities ranging from 30kW to 1MW) and the utility-scale market sector over the next two years.
SAPVIA noted that the seventh bidding window of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) will further drive demand for utility-scale state-owned power plants, connecting 1.8GW of new solar projects to the grid by the end of 2028.
From the fourth quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of this year, installed capacity in the large C&I market (with installed capacities between 1MW and 50MW) decreased by 24%, according to SAPVIA. The association explained that one reason for the decline in installations in 2024 is the emergence of new aggregators and traders, intensifying competition on the supply side, coupled with the suspension of load shedding since March 2024, making bilateral power purchase agreements a viable option for large C&I users.
SAPVIA reported a 60% to 80% decline in the South African residential solar market compared to 2023, mainly due to the suspension of load shedding, with most household installations adopting load-shedding protection devices combining solar and batteries. The association stated that economic factors are expected to drive future residential PV installation demand, noting ongoing discussions on demand-side incentives, including suggestions to restore PV-related personal income tax benefits, comprehensively reform energy recovery plans to make solar more accessible to middle-income families, and introduce competitive energy credit programs.
The association also stated, “These supply and demand dynamics are expected to bring stable and sustainable growth rates to the South African residential PV market in 2025 and 2026.”
Dr. Rethabile Melamu, CEO of SAPVIA, predicted that South Africa’s PV installed capacity will grow from 6.68GW in 2024 to 11.03GW in 2029 due to increasing demand for clean energy.
