Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global solar power capacity additions will exceed 4,000 GW by 2030.
In its flagship report Renewables 2024, the agency forecasts that between 2024 and 2030, more than 5500 GW of new renewable energy capacity will be installed globally, bringing the total to nearly 11,000 GW. Solar energy will account for 80% of this growth, with utility-scale projects leading the way. However, distributed solar applications—residential, commercial, industrial, and off-grid projects—are expected to represent nearly 40% of new solar installations.
“Adoption is accelerating due to declining costs, shorter permitting times, and broad social acceptance,” the report stated. “As more households and businesses seek to lower electricity bills, cost competitiveness and policy support are also driving growth in distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers.”
The IEA report adds that global annual renewable capacity additions will continue to rise, reaching nearly 940 GW per year by 2030.
China is expected to remain the dominant player in the global market, accounting for 60% of renewable capacity growth by 2030. In the same period, renewable capacity expansion in the EU and the US is expected to double, with the EU well on track to achieve its target of 600 GW of solar capacity by the end of the decade.
The IEA noted that India is the fastest-growing major economy in terms of renewable energy, thanks to its accelerated auctions, new rooftop solar support schemes, and stronger financial indicators.
The report also emphasized that emerging and developing economies hold vast untapped potential for renewable energy if policies improve. It explained that high financing costs continue to diminish the economic attractiveness of renewables in these markets, with weak grid infrastructure and secure integration of renewables being other key challenges.
The IEA stated: “Risk-reducing measures, including the creation of a stable policy environment with clear long-term targets, can unlock further capacity.” It suggested that in countries with an oversupply of fossil-fuel-based power under long-term contracts, policymakers could consider renegotiating rigid power and fuel contracts and speeding up the phase-out of fossil-fuel power plants.
Although the overall growth falls short of the COP28 goal to double the world’s renewable energy capacity within the decade—achieving 2.7 times the current level instead—the IEA noted that if governments seize near-term opportunities, there is potential to fully meet the tripling target.
It urged nations to announce higher ambitions in their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. Of the NDCs formulated ahead of COP28, only 14 countries have set clear renewable capacity targets, but according to the report, nearly 70 countries, representing 80% of global renewable capacity, are on track to meet or exceed their current 2030 renewable targets.
“The report shows that the growth of solar will transform the global power system this decade,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Renewable energy is growing faster than government targets.”
